Analyzing The Wet Shaving Market in 2023

Actually, consolidation of the market comes to mind.  Things are maturing, the separation is less amongst many products, interest rates on loans are very high.  Economist seem to believe there is a 4-6 quarter recession coming near the end of this year, which is unavoidable due to the fed’s money policy of fast and steep interest rate hikes.  

All of these things point to consolidation, if not now then this industry is a niche inside of a niche.

It's interesting because on the one hand it seems folks are waiting for the other shoe to drop but on the other hand it seems that at least in the shaving space there has been healthy growth.  Maybe shaving is immune?  Almost the entire adult population shaves in some manner and they need something to do it with.  I think there is still plenty of room for growth in the market.  There's people who might dip their foot into wet shaving with just the software side of things while sticking to cartridge razors and I'm thinking that eventually they might try a DE razor. I also think software aimed at women is a good idea - maybe hardware too. Again, they may not want to shave with a DE/SE razor at first but a really nice soap with brushes and lather bowls in a more feminine style might sell.  I'm not sure what a household where both suffered from acquisition disorder would look like!

There's also two things that help this in a recession. For casual, single razor for normal shaving people, a DE razor can save money. For collectors, it's a relatively cheap collecting hobby.

The US is at approximate full employment

With all due respect, and I do respect you Shane, but this is not correct. It just suits the media's narrative.
Unemployment rate is low (aka, employment rate is high) only because that calculation only takes into account the people in a job and LOOKING for a job.
It IGNORES the people NOT looking for a job.
The real number is Labor Force Participation. Which is low.

The US is at approximate full employment

With all due respect, and I do respect you Shane, but this is not correct. It just suits the media's narrative.
Unemployment rate is low (aka, employment rate is high) only because that calculation only takes into account the people in a job and LOOKING for a job.
It IGNORES the people NOT looking for a job.
The real number is Labor Force Participation. Which is low.

Labor force participation rate is currently at 62.4% and climbing. Pre-pandemic it was 63.3%. And there are currently 1.9 job listings per unemployed person. Pre-pandemic that ratio was 1.2. Source: BLS

I'm not an expert, but an economy that can provide two jobs for every person looking for one is not an economy that I feel overly worried about. Labor force participation can change for a number of reasons and someone that currently wants a job can find one - or two.

My company has less than 100 people and we've been trying to hire (or just get applications in) for 12 jobs for the good part of a year. Something ain't right.

I also interact with plenty of other companies, they all say the same thing. "No one wants to work anymore."

From my perspective a driving force for the coming years would be disposable income (real or perceived ala "wealth effect"). The challenge with looking at labor participation is that it doesn't directly communicate real wage earnings or the nature of the work available.

Separately, I continue to wonder if there is not a missed opportunity to attract first time shavers to wet shaving. I imagine that if you are introduced to shaving with cartridges or electric, as an adolescent or young adult, it might be many years before you catch that generation again with competing attention for other endeavors and interests. It seems something like a Wet Shaving Alliance could bring combined resources to invest in marketing campaigns etc. that could grow the entire industry.

I also interact with plenty of other companies, they all say the same thing. "No one wants to work anymore."

They should pay more. I’ve heard from several business owner acquaintances the same grievances that nobody wants to work. Then they tell me that they’re paying $16/hr, no paid breaks, no PTO, no 401(k) plus matching, no health. Of course nobody wants that job. The labor market is a market. Demand for jobs rises as wages for those jobs do. Employees are done being treated poorly and businesses better wise up to that. In the meantime, business leaders that pay well have their pick of the talent pool.

I also interact with plenty of other companies, they all say the same thing. "No one wants to work anymore."

They should pay more. I’ve heard from several business owner acquaintances the same grievances that nobody wants to work. Then they tell me that they’re paying $16/hr, no paid breaks, no PTO, no 401(k) plus matching, no health. Of course nobody wants that job. The labor market is a market. Demand for jobs rises as wages for those jobs do. Employees are done being treated poorly and businesses better wise up to that. In the meantime, business leaders that pay well have their pick of the talent pool.

They really don't want to work anymore. There's a fundamental shift in the work ethic. Many factors beyond pay. I run a decent size operation, I know this first hand.

I also interact with plenty of other companies, they all say the same thing. "No one wants to work anymore."

They should pay more. I’ve heard from several business owner acquaintances the same grievances that nobody wants to work. Then they tell me that they’re paying $16/hr, no paid breaks, no PTO, no 401(k) plus matching, no health. Of course nobody wants that job. The labor market is a market. Demand for jobs rises as wages for those jobs do. Employees are done being treated poorly and businesses better wise up to that. In the meantime, business leaders that pay well have their pick of the talent pool.

They should pay more = consumers pay more = more inflation = rise interest rates = less investment = moving backwards

No thanks.