I just had this thought about the similarities I can see between razor and smartphone history and development. It's tenuous, and not well-developed, of course.
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Regarding razor history: for many years (centuries) razors meant straight razors. There were multiple manufacturers, but the razors didn't change a whole lot.
[Image: Srtaight_Razors_111.350.gif]
Then came Gillette and GEM and the development of the DE and SE razors, respectively. There was a brief boom in razor designs and things like slants, injectors and other types of razors developed.
[Image: gillette1904-efteling_032_thumb.jpg]
This was quickly followed by a few manufacturers taking over the bulk of the razor production and razors became more and more similar - not really offering much variation to the users. This culminated in Gillette and Schick eventually offering the same multi-bladed razors. The designs had converged and, apart from a few minor differences, the same items were being sold to people with constant 'upgrades' that were not really upgrades.
[Image: schicksilk_00005_v01a_white_hr.jpg?sfvrsn=2]
People who were not well-served by this virtual duopoly had to resort to 100 year-old razors and a few companies that made traditional razors.
Smartphones followed the same general trend. Initially there were only non-smartphones (many of them) and precursors of today's smartphones (Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc.), but it was dominated by BlackBerry.
[Image: BlackBerry-Bold-9000.jpg]
Then came the first iPhone followed quickly by Android. They were initially quite different.
[Image: apple-iphone3g.jpg]
[Image: 34121737-2-1333-OVR-1.jpg]
This encouraged a few more companies to try and develop varied smartphones. Windows Phone, the Nokia N9, BlackBerry10, Jolla, Tizen, Ubuntu, Firefox -- they either died out (like the N9/Meego), are dying out (WP and BB) or serve a niche market.
For the most part, this is a duopoly again. Also, Android phones and iPhones are quickly converging in design and interface. There are still minor differences, but they're getting ever closer to being the same thing.
[Image: iphone-6s-rose-gold-back-demo.jpg?itok=BUgov3XM]
[Image: samsung-galaxy-note-5-002.jpg]
Outliers like BlackBerry and Microsoft are running out of time.
--------------------------
What does this imply?
Of course, this wouldn't happen if people were not okay with it. Just like with safety razors - they came in, and essentially killed off the straight (and that happened pretty rapidly). People ate up the hype that was sold to them - 'More blades are better!' - 'You need a hydration strip!'
Not everyone was well-served by this. Some people just suffered in silence, and some of them (like most of us) went back to traditional razor designs, and resisted the 'modern' models.
Similarly, in the case of smartphones, most people are well-served by Apple and the various Android phones. Have you noticed that they all look alike? A slab of glass of various sizes. The apps are all the same and people use them to post pics of their food.
There is a dwindling population of users who want a physical keyboard, or to navigate their phones differently, but since they are such a small part of the market, it's likely that they will eventually have no choices available. Phones like the BlackBerry Classic or Passport are on life-support at the moment.
[Image: Passport-Silver-Edition.png]
These companies will try to make models that allow them to sell enough to stay in business, but eventually they will die out. Blackberry is still around, and announcing new phones (Like the Priv), but for how much longer? Will the next Windows Phones increase their market share? Will Tizen, Firefox, Ubuntu Phone etc. ever rise past their niche status?
Or are we destined to be stuck with iOS and Android while they become the same thing?
Will there be a resurgence of traditional platforms (like there has been with razors)? Of course, it's much simpler to churn out a custom DE razor or a Cobra Classic than it is to develop and launch a smartphone.
-----------------------
Finally, this being technology, will the next great communication fad come along where we have our devices permanently implanted in our bodies somewhere and everything is shared with Google?
I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.
------------------------
Regarding razor history: for many years (centuries) razors meant straight razors. There were multiple manufacturers, but the razors didn't change a whole lot.
[Image: Srtaight_Razors_111.350.gif]
Then came Gillette and GEM and the development of the DE and SE razors, respectively. There was a brief boom in razor designs and things like slants, injectors and other types of razors developed.
[Image: gillette1904-efteling_032_thumb.jpg]
This was quickly followed by a few manufacturers taking over the bulk of the razor production and razors became more and more similar - not really offering much variation to the users. This culminated in Gillette and Schick eventually offering the same multi-bladed razors. The designs had converged and, apart from a few minor differences, the same items were being sold to people with constant 'upgrades' that were not really upgrades.
[Image: schicksilk_00005_v01a_white_hr.jpg?sfvrsn=2]
People who were not well-served by this virtual duopoly had to resort to 100 year-old razors and a few companies that made traditional razors.
Smartphones followed the same general trend. Initially there were only non-smartphones (many of them) and precursors of today's smartphones (Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc.), but it was dominated by BlackBerry.
[Image: BlackBerry-Bold-9000.jpg]
Then came the first iPhone followed quickly by Android. They were initially quite different.
[Image: apple-iphone3g.jpg]
[Image: 34121737-2-1333-OVR-1.jpg]
This encouraged a few more companies to try and develop varied smartphones. Windows Phone, the Nokia N9, BlackBerry10, Jolla, Tizen, Ubuntu, Firefox -- they either died out (like the N9/Meego), are dying out (WP and BB) or serve a niche market.
For the most part, this is a duopoly again. Also, Android phones and iPhones are quickly converging in design and interface. There are still minor differences, but they're getting ever closer to being the same thing.
[Image: iphone-6s-rose-gold-back-demo.jpg?itok=BUgov3XM]
[Image: samsung-galaxy-note-5-002.jpg]
Outliers like BlackBerry and Microsoft are running out of time.
--------------------------
What does this imply?
Of course, this wouldn't happen if people were not okay with it. Just like with safety razors - they came in, and essentially killed off the straight (and that happened pretty rapidly). People ate up the hype that was sold to them - 'More blades are better!' - 'You need a hydration strip!'
Not everyone was well-served by this. Some people just suffered in silence, and some of them (like most of us) went back to traditional razor designs, and resisted the 'modern' models.
Similarly, in the case of smartphones, most people are well-served by Apple and the various Android phones. Have you noticed that they all look alike? A slab of glass of various sizes. The apps are all the same and people use them to post pics of their food.
There is a dwindling population of users who want a physical keyboard, or to navigate their phones differently, but since they are such a small part of the market, it's likely that they will eventually have no choices available. Phones like the BlackBerry Classic or Passport are on life-support at the moment.
[Image: Passport-Silver-Edition.png]
These companies will try to make models that allow them to sell enough to stay in business, but eventually they will die out. Blackberry is still around, and announcing new phones (Like the Priv), but for how much longer? Will the next Windows Phones increase their market share? Will Tizen, Firefox, Ubuntu Phone etc. ever rise past their niche status?
Or are we destined to be stuck with iOS and Android while they become the same thing?
Will there be a resurgence of traditional platforms (like there has been with razors)? Of course, it's much simpler to churn out a custom DE razor or a Cobra Classic than it is to develop and launch a smartphone.
-----------------------
Finally, this being technology, will the next great communication fad come along where we have our devices permanently implanted in our bodies somewhere and everything is shared with Google?
I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.
- Yohann