State of Wetshaving

This is a very good question, and a daring one. Kudos to you Mr. Stirling. In good faith, I offer the following, a view mostly from the outside looking in.

What is the future of wetshaving?

The set of males that shave is massive. The subset of that set that cares about traditional wet shaving is a tiny niche.  There was a time when a man had no choice. Technology moved from a straight edge to a “SAFETY” razor. Technology then advanced to cartridge systems or disposables along with the parallel course of better and better electric razors to the current state of the marketplace. Much of technology exists to make life easier.  Time, is much of the answer. More and more, people have no time.  In the early morning hours, trying to get out the door, who has time to be careful with sharp objects and go through some kind of pre-shave/shave/post-shave routine?  TIME IS MONEY.  We are a society of instant gratification. People don’t wait until they can afford a house. Instead they buy houses they can’t afford and then default when interest rates rise. People don’t buy cars and get equity. They rent them (i.e., lease) because they can drive a more expensive car than they can afford to buy. Everyone wants things NOW, not wait for anything. This is no different. For the majority of men, shaving is a mundane, a task no different than shampooing hair or brushing teeth. There was a kickstarter to create a laser razor. The day this technology goes mainstream and the price goes down to the price of an electric razor, is the day the traditional wet shaving businesses collapses.  Sure, there will be hobbyists as there are hobbyists who buy vinyl and $10,000 high end turntables, but in general, the death bell will toll

Now consider who you want to sell to. If non-traditional wet shaving was so so  bad, then the marketplace would not exist. It’s a simple as that.  The future is the millennials. Selling to Baby Boomers is eventually a dead end. First, look at Hollywood. Look at the 20 something or early 30 males. What do you see either on TV or movies? Sooner or later the 3 day stubble shows up.  That might be a fad but today its fashionable and matters. It is their fashion.

Now look at this review of a razor. First look at the picture.  In a forum  you will see fancy, well done shots of clean products and good backdrops. This looks to me like a snapshot taken with a smartphone with grunge on the head and finger prints.  Now read the article but for those that don't want to read the quick summary is:

I'm young. I use electrics. They aren't messy. I have no time to mess around with anything else. - Again, we live in an society that wants instant gratification. Like it or not, it is what it is.  These are your future customers. Continuing ...

If you buy an electric razor once, its once and done. They last years. Who wants to buy blades and shaving cream all the time? ...  It’s hard to argue with that logic. Who wants to pay for razor blades or shaving cream, both consumables month after month? It’s never ending. Just like the phone companies know the true profits are not in the durable goods, the phone, but rather in the paying for monthly service. This model is repeated everywhere. Buy a TV and no longer is TV service, for the most part, free over the air. Instead you pay a cable company or internet provider month after month, forever.

This is representative of the mindset you are trying to sell too. I see a very hard sell.

Sorry, I forgot to add this. Just look at questions and threads here and all over the internet.

What are your top 10 soaps?
Name your top 5 after shave balms
Which blades do you think of the best.
How many 100 blade buys did you make ... etc. etc etc.

Do you see the same thing for toothpaste? Do people collect 30 toothbrushes and have 100 different scents of hair shampoo in the house? Now turn this back to the youngest customers. This is a niche hobby with a very limited base, a finite base. Its not going to become mainstream. There is that old saying about "You can never go home".  Its not 1955 anymore.

grim, that is certainly an interesting take and I cannot dispute what you say; I just hope you're wrong.

So the bulk of the male population that is actively shaving will go into this as a "hobby". Most will only do it as a hygiene task like brushing teeth. I know many young men who share the thought of just get it done and get it done fast. Though I also know those that have issues with cartridge and electric razors. They are currently tolerating these as part of just getting it done and getting it done fast. As I did when I was younger. So while it is true that youth are used to instant gratification they are also quick to jump from things that do not work from them. Much faster than my generation did.

The young men out there already shaving or just about too might be a battle to bring into the world of wet shaving. Maybe less of a battle as they get older. One thing I said earlier and I stand by it is that those of us that are fathers or will become fathers can teach our kids about wet shaving. My father really did not give my any lessons on shaving. So I was at the mercy of the Gillette cartridge marketing. That is not to say children always do what the parents say. If they do then go to cartridges or electric, and they are having problems they will have a proclivity to wet shaving.

As for time. Do I have less more time now to shave? No! I though have come to point that I could not stand the issues I had with cartridges and electric. So if I stopped doing this as a hobby I would still not stop wet shaving. I might optimize my wetshaving routine, but not give it up.

grim, that is certainly an interesting take and I cannot dispute what you say; I just hope you're wrong.

I didn't write that article, its only representative of a younger viewpoint. I'm also not trying to predict doom and gloom, but objectively look at reality.

Those that comprise a core of a hobby will fiercely defend the hobby. That's actually good.  Having passion for one's opinions and  beliefs is good. No one has to convince me of anything. I come from a time when there was NO alternative. Today, there are many alternatives, all consumer options. Having multiple consumer options is good for the community. Competition is good as it drives down prices.

On the other side of the OP's question, I offer this on the positive side

what can be done to ensure the future viability of wetshaving?

You don't have to sell those INSIDE the community. You have to sell those OUTSIDE the community and specifically the young. Selling the older folks is not the future. But to sell the younger, pricing of the commodity is very very important. Shaving creams or gel sells for maybe 40 cents an oz. It also lasts forever. I have a can maybe 10 years old. The stuff comes out fine. If you want the masses, you need to compete in that marketplace with competitive prices and $2.50/oz or $1/oz won't cut it. That is a luxury product.

When I hear the word Artisan, I think $$$$. The word is overused everywhere - Artisan bread, Artisan Pizza, Artisan Beer, and all of it is NOT mainstream. It spells $$$$. It represents a luxury product. Now to those within the community, who don't blink an eye at buying MdC or SMN, that's entirely different. But for those outside the community, its just a consumable you have to buy month after month. It's no different than utility bills, the cell phone bills, the cable TV bills, all those bills that year after year go up and up and up. Does anyone have a fun time writing a check for their cell phone bill every month? Or when the Cable and Internet services go up in price? I sort of doubt it. But that is exactly how these consumables will be viewed, as a necessary evil.

I have no idea how to attract those customers but for those within the community I can say Customer Service is #1, and here is why.

You already know the marketplace is saturated, as evidenced by recent closures, So here are three real experiences.

Vendor #1. You buy something and an automated email is generated. A couple of days later a Paypal email is generated and a tracking number. And a few days later you get the products. This is normal and what is expected, I presume, by most people. Its about the standard.

Vendor #2. Same scenario, except there is hand written note inside the package, written LONG HAND, using your name. Who writes in long hand anymore? You know they took they time to make personal contact. I was so impressed I showed my wife. That vendor cared.

Vendor #3. Communications is superb. Never mind the automated emails, but within an hour they send a Personal email, explaining the time frames. They didn't have to do that. They took the extra time.

Which of these 3 vendors will get future business? I will be inclined to patronize 2 and 3.

Customer service matters. Thats the best advice I got.

Wet shaving is a live and well. Seeing 3 artisans close or suspend operation in a weeks time is unusual for us. Is it a time for panic? No. These things happen in small businesses all the time, yes it's a time to reflect for some of our artisans. I have 2 sons that have begun to wet shave, my sons have sons and will be taught the traditional way of shaving. I even apply aftershave(a dab) to my 2 year old grandson.
If anything it's a great time to be a wet shaver!

The future of wet shaving is what it always has been. People grow hair that they want gone. You produce a product that can help them get rid of it. How well you can serve that market is the difference between success and failure. Is the market saturated? The answer to that largely depends on how you perceive your market.

Once, a long time ago, there was a shoe company that wanted to expand their market. They sent a very senior salesman to central Africa to see whether there was an opportunity for significant sales there. A few weeks later he called back to the home office and said, "I don't think we can sell any shoes here at all. These people don't wear shoes." A couple of months later they sent a young salesmen back to the same region to have another look. A few days later, he called back to the home office and said, "This is the greatest sales opportunity I've ever seen. Not a single person has a pair of shoes. We're going to sell millions!"

Wet shaving is a live and well. Seeing 3 artisans close or  suspend operation in a weeks time is unusual for us.  

Is it? I have no idea. Small businesses close shop all the time. I have no idea how many tiny places go under who only sell at farmers markets, eBay, or etsy? I don't know. Or is this just a national business worry. I would think 3 is no big deal. But I have no idea and that is why I am asking.

Once, a long time ago, there was a shoe company that wanted to expand their market.  They sent a very senior salesman to central Africa to see whether there was an opportunity for significant sales there.   A few weeks later he called back to the home office and said, "I don't think we can sell any shoes here at all.  These people don't wear shoes."   A couple of months later they sent a young salesmen back to the same region to have another look.  A few days later, he called back to the home office and said, "This is the greatest sales opportunity I've ever seen.   Not a single person has a pair of shoes.  We're going to sell millions!"

I REALLY Like that analogy. Its shows perspective. Unfortunately, it doesn't fit because its talking about taking a product to a market where alternative don't exist. This analogy might be a more appropriate and I think about every one understands cars. Just think about cars.

Prior to the introduction of the automatic transmission, all cars where manual. That was about in 1940 or so but it really didn’t become a mainstream thing until the early 1960s, maybe 20 years later. Automatics were an expensive option, a luxury. Even today, automatics cost thousands of dollars more than a manual transmission. If you buy an automatic, you are making a conscious choice to spend many thousands of dollars more than a manual and you do so for ease of operation. When your transmission fails, you will also pay more than when a manual needs a new clutch. In the end, ease of operations always costs more money.

There used to be a time when manual transmissions not only were cheaper (actually free in that they came with every car) but got better mileage. This is no longer true. Modern double clutch transmissions actually get better gas mileage and emit lower carbon because they are controlled by the car’s computer which is trying to always emit less pollution. However, the new “Automatics” are still an expensive option, a very expensive option.

By the early 1960s, slowly automatics started to take over the automotive market despite the fact they cost multiple thousands of dollar more. The answer is simple. They are much easier to drive. Who wants to mess with a clutch, especially in rush hour traffic? In 1989, 71% of cars were manual.. By the end of 2013, around 96% of new cars sold in the US were manuals.  You want a good way to ensure no one steals your car? Drive a Manual Transmission. Few new drivers will have a clue.

Today there is some pushback. Some consumers want to go back to the “good old days”. They want to do things the way their father and grandfather did and sit in traffic pushing a clutch in and out and controlling the engines themselves, rather than letting the car’s ECU decide when to shift. But in the long run, they are far and few between and their days are numbered.  Instead, self-drive cars will be coming out. Already, some cars parallel park themselves. I can put my car on  cruise control and with adaptive cruise, I never have to touch the gas or brake again. The car will accelerate or decelerate to a stop as need be and it does it much better than a human who can fall asleep or be distracted. This is just the beginning. Technology will get better and better.

This is no different. There might always be some kind of nostalgia but I think a better analogy is the car analogy. Some people, despite the higher cost of an automatic transmission, don’t won’t to be bothered going back to the old fashioned way of driving although manual transmissions are cheaper. Similarly, the hassle of traditional wet shaving can be just that, a hassle. It’s slower, you can cut yourself, and despite costing more for alternative methods, the less aggravation is worth it to the mass consumer just like the cost of an automatics transmission is worth it to drivers.  

Just saying … if it were truly a better way, then the mass market would totally embrace it. It doesn't. Obviously a large segment of people use electric razors and a massive segment of the market would rather pay the extra money for the convenience of cartridges. Money talks in the end.

So I don't see it a bad sign that a handful of soap makers disappear from the market place. Businesses, particularly low volume ones in a niche market must go out of business all the time. And it does not surprise me in the least if there is pushback in the market place an a resurgence of traditional wet shaving just as their is a tiny pushback in the automotive industry where some drivers want a manual transmission. But in the bigger picture, the hand writing is on the wall. And it it technology making things easier that drives it. Most human invention and use of technology is to  make life easier, not more difficult. This is not doom and gloom, just a view of what actually happens.

I don't believe these businesses closing have much of any impact. Others will take their place.

Presently at least,  wet shaving products, like all small-scale artisan products, are, for the most part,  simply an exercise in free-market principles.  As such, the law of supply and demand will dictate how many producers can exist, at what production levels, at what price, and will ultimately dictate which will survive and which will fail.  As long as producers can properly anticipate demand, set appropriate prices, create products of sufficient quality to meet or exceed customer expectations and still produce adequate profit for themselves, they will remain in business. Those that fail to meet those requirements will not survive, even in an ideal business environment. There will always be some level of demand for products such as these, therefore, (in the absence of government interference) there will always be some number of producers creating these products.

The chief concern in the original post seemed to be: "What if the current demand is just a fad?"  That is a legitimate concern.  Market forces are not entirely predictable and are notoriously fickle. As grim points out, public opinion can and will change frequently as new technology presents itself, or as competing market forces successfully sway public opinion.  The most significant method that companies have used to grow markets and gain competitive advantage, since the early 20th century, was originally called "propaganda." When that term fell into disfavor after WWI, the practice became known as "public relations."  

The second most common method that businesses have used to gain advantage over competitors is government intervention through regulation.  In my opinion, the greatest threat to artisan producers, in the long run, is being regulated out of existence.  Should the market become large enough, large companies will manipulate government officials of all sorts to pass regulations that will prove difficult for small producers to comply with, thereby driving them from the market.  This is a practice that has repeated itself thousands of times since the early days of the "progressive" movement and continues unabated today.

I will not discuss how public relations can be used to create and grow markets at this time, since that is a lengthy discussion.  However, if anyone is interested in the topic, I would suggest reading the seminal document created by the "father of public relations":  Propaganda -- Edward Bernays.  It is available on Amazon or available for free in PDF form on the inter webs.  It is well worth the read.  It explains why you eat bacon and eggs for breakfast, why women started smoking, why anybody ever listened to Sigmund Freud and ultimately why you have the opinions that you have and why you wrongly believe they are your own -- written and explained by the man who caused it to happen.

The answer to the specific question of, "Will the market change?" is always:  Yes it will.  The trick is to be adaptable to the change that occurs.  Stirling, who I will use as an example (having asked the question), doesn't just create shaving soap or shaving products.  Rather, they can and do participate in a larger market, that is not dependent upon whether wet shaving is a fad.  They also produce bathing soap, lotions and fragrances, none of which (thank goodness) are a fad.  It is this product diversity which  is the antidote to the danger posed by a changing market and the springboard to larger enterprise, if cards are played wisely. I bathed with a bar of Stirling Tuscany soap just this morning. The market speaks.

I will not discuss how public relations can be used to create and grow markets at this time, since that is a lengthy discussion.  However, if anyone is interested in the topic, I would suggest reading the seminal document created by the "father of public relations":  Propaganda -- Edward Bernays.  It is available on Amazon or available for free in PDF form on the inter webs.  

I agree with this. And you don't have to read the book. There is a free podcast under how stuff works that explains what Bernays did to industry, and to update it would be something like this:

89 out of 100 doctors think Marlboros taste better than any other cigarette

Of course they don't tell you that they are all dead of lung cancer now or the thousands of other doctors who told you not to smoke.

You can use your imagination and see how that works today.

Sharpology has a long article about this dated 3/14 (I presume we can talk about other places on the net - if not mod just delete this)

Much of what he says is true, particularly the issue of customer service. ALL business, nm small businesses, should heed those warnings. However, the very next article dated 3/16 (yesterday) is about a brand new soap maker.

This is why recent closings mean little WITHIN an expanding bubble. The bubble expands, contracts, and then another company takes its place. Maybe it survives, maybe it doesn't, or maybe it lasts 150 years like the British companies. Regardless, any business should heed the advice there about customer service and what sets you aside from the others. The bigger the bubble, that is, the space of all vendors grows, very little separates the average costing products. Customer service can set you apart.