#1

Member
SE NH
I read news online. I like the British Daily Mail site. A different slant than the customary US view.
But even they are feeding the hype over the latest biological threat.
They reported 2900 Chinese have died. If that number is true it is mathematically insignificant. Yes I know if you were a victim it is NOT insignificant. That said there are 1.4 billion Chinese. That is 0.0002%.

The Center for Disease Control reports the following stats.
Since 2010 the average influenza (the common flu for that year):
Cases. 9 - 45 million 
Hospitalizations. 140,000 - 810,00
Deaths. 12,000 - 61,000
Source.   https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

We have a population of 331 million.
The low figure for deaths equals 0.004%.
The high figure is 0.02%. This is two orders of magnitude higher than the current Chinese death rate. So every year the regular flu is much more deadly. Granted we seem to be in the beginning stages.

Still I think the media loves a crisis to sell papers, views or hits. Kind of like hyping ever winter storm.

While I am a scientist I am not a doctor nor an epidemiologist so you can take the above with a grain of salt. Bit I just don't  see the threat to humanity the media is reporting.

Or blaming the present administration. Sheesh - 1 American has died. And somehow it is a biblical plague caused by the guy in the whitehouse.

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#2

Member
Athens, Greece
It spreads much faster than a regular flu.

If an infected person touches an item, this item becomes infected for 9 days and you can easily get the virus that way. This does not happen with a regular flu.

It's much more complicated that what you say and we shouldn't oversimplify things.

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Nikos


#3

Member
Virginia
(03-01-2020, 06:05 PM)nikos.a Wrote: It spreads much faster than a regular flu.

If an infected person touches an item, this item becomes infected for 9 days and you can easily get the virus that way. This does not happen with a regular flu.

It's much more complicated that what you say and we shouldn't oversimplify things.
I thought the virus can survive up to 2 hours outside of a host? Has that been re-evaluated and determined to be 9 days?
#4

Member
SE NH
(03-01-2020, 06:05 PM)nikos.a Wrote: "It spreads much faster than a regular flu.

If an infected person touches an item, this item becomes infected for 9 days and you can easily get the virus that way. This does not happen with a regular flu.

It's much more complicated that what you say and we shouldn't oversimplify things."

From the Journal of Hospital Infection ALL the coronaviruses were/are capable of surviving for up to 9 days not just the current CoVid-19.
" The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute"

Source  https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.c...3/fulltext


Hype - New York Post headline
 Coronavirus could survive up to 9 days outside the body, study says

Source https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/...-says/amp/

Funny they reference the journal I posted above. Over simplification indeed.

CDC says airborne droplets most likely vector.
"Person-to-person spread

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
  • Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

  • Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

Source. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...ssion.html


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#5

Super Moderator
There is. a lot of overblown hype going on around this - the mainstream media is basically in a death spiral from having lost so many readers/viewers to the new media online which means they've also lost advertising revenue making them so desperate to attract eyes that almost everything they print/broadcast is sensational, overblown click-bait.  Its creating a dangerous environment where nobody knows what's true or not.  From what I was able to find from reliable (one hopes) sources is that the corona virus is similar to the seasonal flu in contagiousness and fatality - its mainly killing people over 80 and immune compromised or respiratory compromised people.  Its not even close to killing the numbers the seasonal flu does every year - since November 2019 the seasonal flu has killed just over 30,000 people in the US alone and the season isn't over yet.  Measles is way more contagious and way more deadly.  There will be a vaccine soon and hopefully the scare will taper off.  Naturally I could be wrong on every point but I've confirmed this with my wife and she hasn't corrected me yet.

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#6

Member
Athens, Greece
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2020, 07:17 PM by nikos.a.)
(03-01-2020, 06:32 PM)PhilNH5 Wrote:
(03-01-2020, 06:05 PM)nikos.a Wrote: "It spreads much faster than a regular flu.

If an infected person touches an item, this item becomes infected for 9 days and you can easily get the virus that way. This does not happen with a regular flu.

It's much more complicated that what you say and we shouldn't oversimplify things."

From the Journal of Hospital Infection ALL the coronaviruses were/are capable of surviving for up to 9 days not just the current CoVid-19.
" The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute"

Source  https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.c...3/fulltext


Hype - New York Post headline
 Coronavirus could survive up to 9 days outside the body, study says

Source https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/...-says/amp/

Funny they reference the journal I posted above. Over simplification indeed.

CDC says airborne droplets most likely vector.
"Person-to-person spread

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
  • Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

  • Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

Source. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...ssion.html


And your point is what exactly?

We don't have antibodies for this new virus. That's why it's almost comical to compare it to a regular flu.

If it's not something serious, as you propose, then why the infected people are being put in quarantine and negative pressure rooms in hospitals? Is it due to the ease of being transmitted from person to person? Or maybe beacuse we know little things about it? Both I guess. There is not enough epidemiological information that can answer all the questions that are being arisen. Yet you're suggesting that we shouldn't be worried as a seasonal flu has killed more people so far.

I'll just stick to what scientists and doctors say.

This is why I hate it when I read such threads. If science does not have the answers, who do you think you are?

You get nothing by oversimplifying things. You just posted some numbers that prove nothing.

As I see it, you just wanted to belittle your president. Your last sentence shows where you wanted to end up, why you started this thread and sums it up all. If you don't like your president, next time vote wiser. Until then, leave it to the experts.

A good source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coro...ns-answers

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Nikos


#7

Super Moderator
San Diego, Cal., USA
Phil, the Mail is known for sensationalism.  I would no more look for accurate information there than I would the National Enquirer here in the States.  I do believe that the press needs to inform about this, as it should about any important world event.  While the world may be in panic mode about it right now because of all the unknowns about the virus that, in no way, mitigates the importance of reporting about it.  The accuracy of those reports will probably be all over the place until health officials can narrow down the cause and figure out preventative measures.

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#8

Member
SE NH
(03-01-2020, 07:16 PM)nikos.a Wrote:
(03-01-2020, 06:32 PM)PhilNH5 Wrote:
(03-01-2020, 06:05 PM)nikos.a Wrote: "It spreads much faster than a regular flu.

If an infected person touches an item, this item becomes infected for 9 days and you can easily get the virus that way. This does not happen with a regular flu.

It's much more complicated that what you say and we shouldn't oversimplify things."

From the Journal of Hospital Infection ALL the coronaviruses were/are capable of surviving for up to 9 days not just the current CoVid-19.
" The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute"

Source  https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.c...3/fulltext


Hype - New York Post headline
 Coronavirus could survive up to 9 days outside the body, study says

Source https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/...-says/amp/

Funny they reference the journal I posted above. Over simplification indeed.

CDC says airborne droplets most likely vector.
"Person-to-person spread

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
  • Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

  • Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

Source. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...ssion.html


And your point is what exactly?

We don't have antibodies for this new virus. That's why it's almost comical to compare it to a regular flu.

If it's not something serious, as you propose, then why the infected people are being put in quarantine and negative pressure rooms in hospitals? Is it due to the ease of being transmitted from person to person? Or maybe beacuse we know little things about it? Both I guess. There is not enough epidemiological information that can answer all the questions that are being arisen. Yet you're suggesting that we shouldn't be worried as a seasonal flu has killed more people so far.

I'll just stick to what scientists and doctors say.

This is why I hate it when I read such threads. If science does not have the answers, who do you think you are?

You get nothing by oversimplifying things. You just posted some numbers that prove nothing.

As I see it, you just wanted to belittle your president. Your last sentence shows where you wanted to end up, why you started this thread and sums it up all. If you don't like your president, next time vote wiser. Until then, leave it to the experts.

A good source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coro...ns-answers
Whoa. That got ugly fast. 
I posted facts from a journal and the CDC. Not sure why you missed that or why it bothers you. Your ECDC seems to be on the same page as our CDC.

And your last point is laughable. I was lamenting that the media hype includes attacking the president.

No reason to get your knickers in a bunch. If I am as dumb as your infer just consider these the  ramblings of a fool. Much as I consider the media presentation. 
Stay healthy.

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#9

Member
Athens, Greece
(03-01-2020, 07:28 PM)PhilNH5 Wrote:
(03-01-2020, 07:16 PM)nikos.a Wrote:
(03-01-2020, 06:32 PM)PhilNH5 Wrote:

And your point is what exactly?

We don't have antibodies for this new virus. That's why it's almost comical to compare it to a regular flu.

If it's not something serious, as you propose, then why the infected people are being put in quarantine and negative pressure rooms in hospitals? Is it due to the ease of being transmitted from person to person? Or maybe beacuse we know little things about it? Both I guess. There is not enough epidemiological information that can answer all the questions that are being arisen. Yet you're suggesting that we shouldn't be worried as a seasonal flu has killed more people so far.

I'll just stick to what scientists and doctors say.

This is why I hate it when I read such threads. If science does not have the answers, who do you think you are?

You get nothing by oversimplifying things. You just posted some numbers that prove nothing.

As I see it, you just wanted to belittle your president. Your last sentence shows where you wanted to end up, why you started this thread and sums it up all. If you don't like your president, next time vote wiser. Until then, leave it to the experts.

A good source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coro...ns-answers
Whoa. That got ugly fast. 
I posted facts from a journal and the CDC. Not sure why you missed that or why it bothers you. Your ECDC seems to be on the same page as our CDC.

And your last point is laughable. I was lamenting that the media hype includes attacking the president.

No reason to get your knickers in a bunch. If I am as dumb as your infer just consider these the  ramblings of a fool. Much as I consider the media presentation. 
Stay healthy.
If it concerns the public health, there is a reason.

It got ugly the moment you tried to oversimplify a worldwide problem we know almost nothing about.

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Nikos


#10

Member
Central Maine
Well, there is a treatment and preventative.

To prevent, if you have it or any airborne virus, wear a mask without an easy exhale vent. The point is for the infected person to not spread it. Masks are useless if worn by someone uninfected since the virus can get through it. But for the infected a mask stops the mucous particles that carry the virus and such since they're too large to get through the mask. Too, most folks don't seal the mask by squeezing the aluminum strip to form fit their nose. The strip is there to achieve a seal and not to make the mask shiny and attractive to crows.

Also part of prevention, don't touch mucous membranes, and wash and disinfect hands regularly.

To treat we have Tamiflu (sp?) but it has to be used within 2 days of the first signs from what little I know of it.

At this point I'm not worried about it. We can hole up for quite some time and not see or contact anyone. I feel sorry for folks who live their lives like a bee in a hive and can't stay away from people. But people make choices that they live with (or not).

The problem with the reporting now is that it's deliberately done to hype it and make it much worse than it presently is. That is bad for the weak minded to encounter, and others just tune it out. Too, much of the reporting is done to politicize it and make certain people that the media absolutely hates assume guilt for something over which they have no control. Throwing $ at it does nothing, but educating folks would. But the media doesn't see that as being their job. That's how I see it anyway.

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