Good question. I *think* it is supposed to mean that it expires X months after the first use. But it seems that depends on the product and the ingredients (ie preservatives). Soft soaps and creams seem to expire sooner than triple milled hard soaps.
That said, my Tabac soap is marked as 36M but I used it for the first time 4+ years ago seems to be like new in its porcelain container.
Pannacrema Vetiver (old formula) is marked 24M and it has started to dehydrate/shrink after approx 1,5 years of use.
Proraso Green is marked as 12M but it is like new after 1,5+ years of use.
A Kent soap that I have been using for more than a year now is in relatively good condition, with small cracks only. A little dehydrated. Before that I had a MWF (I know, it is supposed to be the same soap) and it had major cracks after ~8 months of use. I threw that away. I have a Kent and a MWF soap unused in their original packaging. I hope they will last for years!