(This post was last modified: 02-01-2020, 08:49 PM by pork.)
I'll preface this by saying that this has nothing to do with flippers, flipping, etc. It probably does have to do with overpaying. I'm not condoning or condemning any of it. It's just how it is. I don't really care to get into why it is this way, who's responsible, etc. Also, it's Aldo's business and he's free to charge whatever he feels his work is worth. As a self-employed person without any set rates, I totally get wanting to work less for more money when it's possible to do so.
For those willing to pay for a premium brush, I think the $400 point is where many people start to get uneasy and reevaluate. Take retail prices out of the equation for the time being. What does a Wiborg White Badger sell/raffle for now? I'd say $550-650. Black Eagle HT1 25mm, $400-$500, 28mm $450-$600; Dec B1 or B2 Jeffo, say $400-$500, B5/B6, $300-$400; Varlet low light $400-500. Any of these could be more or less on any given day. And some can be way more, but these are ballpark figures, maybe a bit on the high side overall.
And I think these numbers have to do more with scarcity than quality. I don't think I will ever have the chance to buy a Wiborg direct. Most people probably feel the same way. Black Eagle...We assume more will be available, but who knows when and how many will be sold publicly in 2020? Probably not many, but certainly more than Wiborg. Until recently, I thought I'd get 2-3 more Varlets this year in drops. DG is a different animal due to how the batch of hair sort of dictates how desirable a brush is, so DG resale prices can be all over the map.
I think a 29mm Low Light Ranger from the recent drop could sell for around $450, give or take. I remember multiples of another shape (privately) sold for $500, but I don't think the buyer made his money back on them. So I think that $400-$450 range is probably what a secondary market buyer might expect to pay for a 27 or 29 mm Varlet brush in a normal color. Most people in this game begin to wince around $400 . I'm talking about people who are willing to buy a $310 Varlet from a drop. Second hand, I think $400 is the number where they get uneasy. $450....you lose most of the people in the game. $500...all but the high rollers are out, unless it's a raffle.
A base model 27mm Gaslamp now retails for $495, so let's just call it $500. There goes almost everyone...primary market, secondary market, etc. To the high roller, it doesn't matter. I'd be willing to bet at least one person has an order in for one custom Varlet in every shape already. I wouldn't be surprised if three people have already ordered 6 brushes each already. But to the guy who was in the game for $300-$400, and conflicted around $450, Varlets are no longer an option. Maybe they still are on the table for folks who don't already own one. I have four, so I am holding off for now. As much as I would like one in each shape, I'm willing to wait to see what happens, or just forget about that plan for now.
I could shell out $500+ for a brush, but there's no guarantee I will love it. I think Varlets are constructed as well as any brush I've used, but I like some of mine more than others. And, if I don't love it, I'd be worried about taking a hit, especially if I spent $680 on a 29mm XD beehive with all the bells and whistles. So I count myself as someone who has been scared off by this new price structure, which is sad, because my Varlets are my favorite brushes.